Free NEWSLETTER for the week ending 7-11-2008

Hi Friends,

 

The week opened with fear and despair by recording the low of 2252 on Monday 27th Oct. The festival of lights did bring in a lot of brightness to the market. Stocks have bounced back as if the world's woes are over. We all know that the worse may not be over as yet but Friday saw fireworks across the board. Falling inflation, cooling crude and a host of measures by governments and central banks augur well for the economy in general and the market sentiment in particular. However, a reversal in fii flows remains the big trigger for our markets. Till that happens, confidence levels may continue to remain lower. In 3 actual trading days, nifty bounced back sharply till 2921,  a rise of 669 points almost 30% rise from high to low. This rise was in line with other world markets with Brazil rising by 29%, UK by 19%, Japan by 29% and Honkong by 34% from their respective high to low during the week. Starting from trading week ending 26 sept 08   sensex and nifty had fallen consecutively for 5 weeks till week ending 24th oct 08. Plan of action for the week investors who are trapped with their long holdings must make full use of this corrective upward move to gradually liquidate their positions from 3100 levels upwards. Traders holding long future & option positions from DIPAVALI may also plan to book profit on futures and calls on the gap up opening on Monday or around 3100 levels. Or can hold these by taking fresh puts of nifty 2800 to 3000 or short higher calls of 3300 and above.

 

In weekly   charts nifty has closed exactly at the Fibonacci 13 week moving average at 2885. Critical 5 week moving average is around 3131 levels. During the trading week ending 7th Nov, 3131 till 3168 should provide major resistance. Another thing traders must remember is that , now everyone is thinking of dead cat bounce at least till 3100+ levels but may be surprised to find nifty may not reach even that level and may start to fall from sub 3100 levels to retest recent lows of 2252. Or it could be that instead of a dead cat bounce, it may turn out to be a mega bounce till 200 week moving average at 3666 levels. Two critical levels on the down side to be kept in mind for all long position holders as mental must quit points are 2777 & 2633. Sustaining below 2777 may slide till 2633 & breach of 2633 can surely take nifty to retest or breach recent lows of 2252. Spot nifty may have a trading range of 3140 to 3254 on the higher side. 3254 may be reached with extremely bullish world market conditions that may even clear the path for further rise towards critical 3333 levels. On the down side critical support at 2633 should hold.

 

Markets on Monday should again open strong. Even markets across Asia and other parts of the world have no bad news to react to. Hence expect a +ve opening for Asian markets also. Even if other Asian markets open flat or weak, with the stimulus package given by RBI, traders should see at least a good gap up opening for Indian markets for Monday. One should expect at least a 500 point rally from the break out point to about 3200 to 3252 levels under normal circumstance. The momentum with which the indices are moving up shows further up move. Important technical indicators like rsi, slow stotch, w%r are clearly giving +ve divergences in the daily eod charts. Even most important indicator macd is giving bottoming out signals in the daily charts. All these technical indicators may take the markets up towards 3200 or higher levels in next few days. However since weekly indicators have not yet generated buy signals, there is every possibility of markets reacting negatively to any adverse news or world event. Traders and investors holding long positions since DIPAVALI are advised to book timely profit.

 

Traders are advised to keep their eyes & ears open and be extremely cautious as fiis have already taken out $3 billion in October itself. Be sure they have not pulled out such huge amounts for their daughter's marriage or for a package tour by ocean liner "queen Mary 2" to South East Asian countries. They exactly know what is in store for equity markets in next 2 to 3 years after 5 years of Bull Run. So it is wiser for investors not to wait like a sitting duck to see your capital melting away day by day at the hands of fiis & hedge funds. Ideal thing at this stage is to be bold enough to pullout the money during the coming anticipated dead cat bounce and either sit in cash or invest in secured tax saving bonds or provident funds. Confine yourself to intraday trading only without taking the risk of carry over of unhedged future positions. Avoid using or listening to terms like valuations, pe multiples, profit to book, ebdita margins etc. These terms sound well from MBA freshers or paper tiger fund managers but these terms lose their significance & sound meaningless in strong bull or bear markets. Instead focus on more useful & simple  terms like stock market cycles,  highs, lows & duration of last 5 bull & bear markets  of India &  other  important nations of the world , relationship of  one bull market  highs and lows and duration  to previous bull or bear markets highs & lows, fibonacci  ratios & its direct relationship to index & stock price movements. These will at least guide you as to where our markets may be headed in next 3 years whether to sensex 3000 or sensex 20000.

 

Two of the biggest mistakes most traders generally commit are: -- firstly, they do not follow the trend, having an ever lasting tendency of always trading against the trend. Secondly  not holding on to their gains thinking that gains will go away thus quitting early from  likely great gains and at the same time boldly holding on to their loss making trades for days, weeks & months together thinking that loss will be reduced or  will turn out to be a gain in a few days which actually never comes and   the loss gradually becomes so big that entire capital is wiped out or one is forced to quit at a much bigger loss. With this wrong trading habit, 5 times of gains are wiped off by a single loss. So if one wants to be a successful trader, then these two wrong trading habits must be rectified by firstly trading in the direction of the trend, secondly developing a habit of quitting losses early  and holding  on to the  gains by mentally shifting  must quit points in the direction of gain.

 

SHORT TERM CALLS:

 

Buy RELIANCE around 1335-1350 Stop loss 1275 Target 1410-1450+

 

Buy Mc Dowell around 850-860 if gets, sl 2% below cost, tgt 902-950+

 

Rest calls only for paid clients......

 

HAPPY TRADING.....

 

 

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Disclaimer: Pre-market Intraday calls are based on EOD charts and previous day's closing price so if there is any sudden news in market hours & effects market we are not responsible for that.

Free NEWSLETTER for the week ending 17-10-2008

Hi Friends,

 

    The global mess kept pounding Indian markets, which twice avoided trading freeze this week. The Sensex tumbled 16% and the Nifty lost 14% after sinking to lows of 10,239 and 3198, respectively. Headwinds seem to be a gentle word for the markets world over as indices continue to witness ruthless selling. We believe the market is yet to find a firm bottom. Despite relatively attractive valuations, index heavyweights could succumb to the selling pressure of FIIs and domestic funds. Even after falling so much, the weekly charts are still giving sell signals. Weekly MACD with bearish hook formations looks still dangerous and may even fall much more from here. Weekly slow stoch looking more dangerous and is ready to enter the lower zone thus giving more bearish signals and confirming to what bearish macd is indicating. Similarly daily indicators are also giving signals that show continuation of bearish trend. Although as per the price of the indices, they give an impression of over sold levels, yet in bear phases, this over sold levels continue to remain oversold for days & weeks together. The only consolation this week is that Dow has fallen continuously for 7 days in a row and a day or two of pause or dead cat bounce can not be ruled out in Dow & other Asian markets. Similarly sensex has fallen for five days in a row which may take a pause for a day or two. Or even may show a corrective upward move from these or slightly lower levels.

 

    The Government, SEBI and RBI announced measures to ease the pain in the markets, but the same met with limited success, as the massacre continued unabated. The Government expanded the scope of infrastructure to allow companies in mining, exploration and refinery sectors to raise overseas loans through the ECB route. Capital market regulator SEBI removed restrictions on offshore derivative instruments (ODIs) in both, the cash as well as futures & options segments of the market. SEBI chief C.B. Bhave said the 40% cap on ODIs, including participatory notes (PNs), out of the total assets under custody in the cash market will also be done away with.

But, the biggest step was taken by the RBI, which slashed CRR by 150 basis points to 7.5% to boost liquidity. The reduction in the CRR comes into effect on Saturday and will pump Rs600bn into the banking system. Also, the Government canceled bond auctions worth US$2bn. The central bank sprung into action after call rates in the inter-bank overnight market soared to a 19-month high of 23%, and the rupee hit an all-time low of 49.30 bringing this year's losses to 20% before it regained some ground.

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and other top government officials reiterated the strength of the Indian economy and promised to take further steps to provide more funds to the banking sector. "We will take steps to infuse liquidity because we recognise that the flow of credit smoothly and efficiently through the system is vital to the stability of the financial system," Chidambaram said.

Finance Secretary Arun Ramanathan said that the RBI has assured the government it was keeping a close watch on the market and would take appropriate steps. The Government set up a panel, which includes representatives from the RBI, to assess the liquidity problem and report back within a week, he said. The RBI blamed the money market squeeze squarely on international conditions and assured investors that the Indian economy was in good health.

 

    Many ICICI Bank customers received SMS messages on their mobile phones on Saturday, assuring them that their deposits with the bank are safe. The message read that the bank is well capitalised with good liquidity. "Please do not listen to baseless rumours," said the message, before ending with greetings for the festive season. This was part of a campaign by the bank to allay fears of their customers, even as rumors of deposit withdrawals by account holders did the rounds. The scrip fell by 20 per cent on the Bombay Stock Exchange on Friday, to a three-year low of Rs 364.10.

    The US government lent insurance major AIG an additional US $37.8bn. The insurer was seized last month and lent US $85bn. The company's executives, meanwhile, got a rough ride in Congress for spending US $440,000 at a fancy resort the week after AIG was bailed out. Bank of America reached a settlement with those states, including California and Illinois, that had brought lawsuits against the lending practices of Countrywide Financial, a beleaguered lender bought by the bank this year. The settlement rejigs the mortgages of around 400,000 homeowners and could cost up to US $8.6bn. Separately, Bank of America raised US $10bn in a share sale and said it would halve its dividend. SAP, the world's largest maker of software for business, said it had experienced a very sudden and unexpected drop in demand. And figures showed that the rate of growth in revenue from online advertising in the US in the first half of 2008 was considerably lower than in the same periods in 2007 and 2006. IBM, however, reported a 22% increase in quarterly profit.

 

    For the week ending 17th October, the trading range of Indian markets will be entirely driven by Dow and Asian markets. Even a flat day in Dow can see good up move in Asian and Indian markets. The day Dow bounces back and closes in the +ve, one can see rocket like move in Asian & Indian markets. The weekly range may be confined to the levels of 2997 to 2878 on the lower side in case of week world markets  & 3535 to 3730  on the higher side in case of strong world markets. A close and sustains above 3535 will be the first signal for big jump till 3730 and in case nifty closes above 3737, and sustains above it,  then be sure to see 4000 + levels by end of current expiry. Inability of nifty to cross and sustain above 3535 may signal another big downward slide.

 

Considering the unprecedented carnage in the global financial markets and uncertainty over the fate of the US and other major economies, we would like to refrain from giving any investment ideas. We continue to advise caution at this stage. Investors should stay on the sidelines till the global selloff abates and markets stabilise. One should not get carried away if there is any kind of a relief rally, as further selling is expected. Clients are advised to stick to intraday trading. Any advance in Indian stocks can only be sustained if global markets recover.

 

    For trading on Monday morning, initial opening will depend on Asian opening. Depending on the progress of Asian markets, Indian indices will move. However the volatility is likely to be high. Nifty spot although looks weak on the daily and weekly charts,  buoyant Asian indices can change the whole situation for nifty and sensex which will blindly follow Asian markets. Sustaining above 3320 can propel nifty spot to higher levels towards Fridays trading highs of 3371 to 3401 levels. Sustaining above 3401 can surely propel nifty to cover a portion of Friday's opening gap till 3454 levels. With weak Asian markets, expect another gap down or flat opening to find strong support around 3222 levels. However breach of 3222 can breach the Friday's intraday neck line to move down towards 3200 followed by 3180 or 3155 levels from where some short covering may be expected. Buying of 3400 & 3300 or even 3500 calls on market declines and holding it till end of the month is likely to give good returns as a good bounce can be expected during the 2nd half of the month. 

 

     

SHORT TERM CALLS:

 

Only for paid clients

 

 

HAPPY TRADING.....

 

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Disclaimer: Pre-market Intraday calls are based on EOD charts and previous day's closing price so if there is any sudden news in market hours & effects market we are not responsible for that.

 

Free NEWSLETTER for the week ending 26-09-2008

Hi Friends,

 

After a subdued trend in the last few sessions, the market staged a solid comeback on Friday. The start of coming week is likely to see continuation of the DOW induced surge to dominate the markets. Friday's blaze of glory may be just be carried forward on Monday. The rise on last Thursday and Friday have completely changed the status of daily indicators which have turned up from lowest levels to generate buy signals although weekly indicators have not yet generated a buy signal and may indicate if this week ending 26th Sept. closes strongly higher than week ending 19th Sept. Most likely the first half of the week may see good up move, to be followed by giving up much of the gains during the second half of the week.

 

It seems Monday and Tuesday are going to be strongly positive days by which time nifty may cross 4400 to 4450 levels. If one has a look at the daily EOD chart above, nifty may make the 5th attempt to test the sloping resistance line this time around 4400 to 4450 levels possibly on Monday or Tuesday. Sustaining above 4400 to 4450 or 14575 to 14750 levels in case of SENSEX for 2 to 3 days can easily take nifty to 4650 or SENSEX to 15500 levels after crossing major resistance of 100 DMA around 4475 and 15000 levels. However, a failure to close decisively above this resistance line around 4450 or 14750 will bring the indices down to make a new low in October. Long position holders may do well to liquidate their long holdings gradually around this level of 4450 to 4480 or 14750 to 15000 for SENSEX. In the chart above, 20 and 50 day moving average cross over is around 4300 & 14300 levels. This cross over, most of the times attracts the prices towards it to breach it, only to fall again. During this up move, a false sense of optimism may be generated that bull phase has resumed only to be followed by another big fall as in all the earlier cases since Jan 08. Many stimulus packages to boost US markets will come and go like the ones you have been seeing since Jan 08 and the present one is nothing special, but after every follow up bounce, markets will resume its natural path of bear run. One must take full advantage of this short term bounces to make good profits. For trading on Monday, the opening of indices will depend mostly on Asian markets and SGX nifty. Expect a gap up open above 20 and 50 days moving average cross over around 4300 or 4330 levels. In case of luke warm positive or flat or weak Asian markets which look most unlikely, expect nifty to find support around 4200 & then around 4133 below which panicky could set in to take nifty towards 4024 or lower levels. Index heavyweight reliance will lead the charge as Mukesh Ambani makes some significant announcement on Sunday. While the going gets good, remember, good times don't last…tough people do. To READ Rakesh Jhunjunwala's (India's most successful investors; one of the stock market's most successful stories) latest interview click on the below link

 

http://brokersreport.blogspot.com/2008/09/rakesh-jhunjunwala-interview-with-cnbc.html

 

The last week, the existing financial system was put to the severest of the test and it almost snapped before change of rules midway through the game, gave the regulators some breathing time to fix the leaking taps. The fed gave up its resolve not to come to the rescue of the ailing financial institutions, after AIG seemed to be sinking the whole ship. While Lehman filed for bankruptcy, a rope worth $85 billion was thrown at AIG and suitor was found for Merrill lynch in quick speed time. And sensing that even that was not helping, Uncle Sam threw his smashed hat in the money market mutual fund ring as well and then announced his mega plan of buying distressed assets from the banking systems, contours of which could be chiseled over the weekend. But the remedy that really helped the markets get a much deserved breather was the banning of shorts by sec till October 2. If people are thinking, that the mechanism m/s Bernanke and Paulson are putting in place, will wave a magic wand over the financial woes and the markets will sky rocket, think again. The buoyancy could last a few sessions, but once the shorts are allowed to be back in the system or another branded cookie crumbles, the markets would be back on their beaten track heading south.

 

We have the f&o expiry to add to the volatility. The sun outage later in the week may bring indices to a frustrating range later. It's better to trade in intraday and limit leverage positions.  

 

NIFTY VIEW:

 

Only for paid clients

 

SHORT TERM CALLS:

 

Only for paid clients

 

 

WEEKLY CALL UPDATES:

5 calls given all achieved mor ethan targets :d enjoyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

 

HAPPY TRADING.....

 

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For payment details mail at teamintraday@gmail.com or can ask here

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Create a blog(website) like us and earn money by placing google ads in your blog. READ A STEP BY STEP GUIDE BY CLICKING HERE.

 

 

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Disclaimer: Pre-market Intraday calls are based on EOD charts and previous day's closing price so if there is any sudden news in market hours & effects market we are not responsible for that.

 

FREE SHORT TERM TIPS 11-08-2008

ADD OUR NEW ID teamintraday@yahoo.com

 

Mail at teamintraday@gmail.com to get payment details

 

FOR FREE INTRADAY TIPS visit http://www.teamintraday.blogspot.com

 

 

SHORT TERM CALL :

 

Buy EVERONN around 520-530 Stop loss 505 Target 545-555

 

Buy PANTALOONR around 390-398 Target 415-430+ Support 361, 325

 

Keep trailing sl above cost

 

 

REST Calls and market and nifty view for paid clients 

 

Paid clients are requested to check their mails.

 

For premium subscription can Mail to teamintraday@gmail.com to get payment details.

 

Check this site regularly, will upload some more free calls.....

 

 

Happy Trading………………..

 

 

Visit our websites.

www.teamintraday.blogspot.com ( Pre-market Intraday Tips )

www.short-term-calls.blogspot.com (Short-Term, Weekly Tips)

www.ipo-masters.blogspot.com/ ( IPO Report & Analysis )

www.brokersreport.blogspot.com ( Top Broker's Reports )

www.indianstocknews.blogspot.com ( Stock News & Views )

www.intradayteam.blogspot.com ( Internet Earning Ideas )

 

Create a blog(website) like us and earn money by placing google ads in your blog. READ A STEP BY STEP GUIDE BY CLICKING HERE.

 

 

Add our yahoo id : teamintraday@yahoo.com

Add our backup id too : intraday.team@yahoo.com

 

Disclaimer: Pre-market Intraday calls are based on EOD charts and previous day's closing price so if there is any sudden news in market hours & effects market we are not responsible for that.